They're Gonna Build Another Edsel
They're Gonna Build Another Edsel By Frank SikernitskyEditor-In-Chief |
Last week, the computer industry introduced the "new wave" in computing.It's a computer that's stripped down to the bare bones, meant to simply connect to the Internet through a service and provide some 'net in the house.
"Net in the house." It sounds like getting a pet or something.
These 'computers' are basically boxes with some RAM, maybe a hard drive, a fast processor, and a modem.
But they key lies in the fact that they're useless unless connected to the network. No software resides on the computer, nor do any of your files. Instead, the provider that you dial into (who charges you) keeps your files and your applications. You get to rent space and rent applications...at a standard cost.
So with machines costing anywhere from $200 to about $500, why will the desktop market survive? Here's why...
People can hardly handle having their files on a computer, much less having them on somebody else's. Certainly, seasoned users know the risks and advantages, but the price level is selling to a market of users who do not have experience yet. Having your taxes on somebody's machine with literally a million other people floating around is not palatable.
The machines are stripped. Inherently, these machines are less capable than full-blown desktop machines costing five to ten times more. In a market where the user is duped into believing that they need a Pentium-150 as a home machine, buyers will be wary of such a lack of features.
You can buy cheap NOW The bottleneck of Internet speed is the modem. Your Internet is only as fast as the slowest part of your computer. So, if you buy an old i386 or 'LC040 Mac with a fast modem, you're already saving. Plus, you get your own disks, you own files, and a machine more capable than dumb terminal emulation.
The Net Doesn't Do CD The defense to the two above arguments is that all of the applications are on the server. All you need to do is execute it...
...and wait. Modem technology is not up to snuff. Theoretical maximum analog modem speeds are above 48.8, but the actual limit, factoring in age and line noise, is 38.8. Even 28.8 is a problem for some users. Downloading even the tiniest portion of an interactive CD product would take hours. Even with a faster connection, the throughput of good-old Encarta is much better on your own CD ROM drive (which these machines will not have).
Unfortunately, these machines are a good idea with bad implementation. By trying to replace the desktop Internet market with stripped machines (an announced goal), they are courting with failure. The market has already seen "Intel Inside" and Apple commercials showing raw speed and impressive multimedia. The stripped boxes will initially offer much diluted service; an extension to the cable TV box. Once the market sees the actual performance, and the initial offering fails, computer makers might go back and design a fully-capable machine that does something they can't bear to consider -- a machine that costs less.
