Campaign '96 Enters the Next Phase

By Paul Skowronek Staff Political Writer

t's finally showtime! After weeks of cliche political slogans, advertisements, and lots and lots of promises, the primary season is finally in full swing. The early contests provided one of the most intense Republican battles ever. In Iowa, the first contest of the year, Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole narrowly escaped the farm belt state with a victory. New Hampshire was awarded to the fiery commentator Patrick Buchanan who is best known for his unwavering social and economic conservatism. New Jersey publisher Steve Forbes won Arizona convincingly, in large part because of his millions spent on advertising. On the eve of the South Carolina primary, the Republican Party was more divided than ever. For the first time in a long time, there was no official front-runner.

South Carolina and "Junior Tuesday," primaries held in several New England states and Georgia have rehashed the political landscape significantly. For the first time since his announcement last April, Bob Dole is now officially the man to beat and is gaining increased momentum and confidence each day. Lamar Alexander, Dick Lugar, and the little known businessman Morry Taylor are finally out of the picture and the bewildered Buchanan organization now realizes that a Presidential campaign must appeal to the entire nation in order to be a success. Dole convincingly won the important New York state primary with over 50 percent of the vote a week ago, and with the endorsements of Alexander and Lugar, the Senate Majority Leader seems destined for a November showdown with President Clinton. Aside from the heavily favored Dole, Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes remain the only publicized candidates still vying for Republican delegates. Buchanan is beginning to feel the money crunch, and his early popularity, even among members of the Christian right, is faltering. Steve Forbes, a millionaire, will not encounter Buchanan's money woes, yet his campaign is loosing ground as well. His uni-faceted message, that the infamous flat tax will cure all of America's ills, has received scrutiny since his early primary victories in Delaware and Arizona. Even though popular ex-HUD chief Jack Kemp recently endorsed Forbes and is joining the campaign, this has not translated into significant electoral success.

The table below shows Republican delegate allocations on the eve of Super Tuesday. All of the following information is based on ABC News estimates from March 10. On the eve of Super Tuesday, 631 delegates were awarded, while 1359 were yet to be awarded. 996 total delegates are needed to capture the Republican party nomination.

Republican Candidate	Delegate Total
Bob Dole	401
Steve Forbes	75
Pat Buchanan	77
Alan Keyes	10
Other Candidates	15
Uncommitted	53

Super Tuesday provided Dole key victories in all seven states up for grabs, including Texas and Florida. Dole is now well on his way to the nomination in August. Undaunted by Dole's commanding lead, Forbes and Buchanan both vow to stay in the race. One can only assume that they wish to secure advantageous time slots to speak at the upcoming Republican National convention. Moreover, Forbes might have his eyes on a cabinet post. By staying in the race, he will still garner plenty of press coverage for his flat tax plan.

Now that a Dole versus Clinton match-up has been set for November, the candidates will most likely turn toward the issues in the next few months. Although George Bush cost himself the 1992 election in part because of his concentration on "trust" and character factors instead of hardcore issues, don't expect the Dole camp to ignore this strategy altogether. President Clinton's first term was emersed in scandal--from Gennifer Flowers and Paula Jones to the infamous Whitewater development deal. Thus, Dole will be able to attack Clinton's morals and character much more effectively than Bush did in 1992. President Clinton, on the other hand, will have an extremely tough time using the same strategy to attack Dole. Clinton's best strategy has always been his "vision thing," an ability to convey great ideas to the public while building his own popularity ratings. This has, to date, been the biggest critique of Dole outside of his age. Dole is often viewed as having no vision and few if any monumental ideas.

Age will be a factor in this campaign. Just as John F. Kennedy provided a new generation of leadership for the 1960's, Bill Clinton successfully ran on a campaign which flaunted his youthful attitude. He made what seemed to be daily appearances on MTV's "Rock the Vote" and often dressed down before the cameras. This provided a sharp contrast to George Bush's conservatism in dress and attitude. If elected, Dole would be the oldest President in American history, older than even the "Gipper" himself. Americans simply do not want to turn back the biological clock. Dole does a well enough job playing down his age before the media, but when it comes time to cast the ballot, many voters will think twice before pulling down the Republican lever. Ronald Reagan's recent diagnosis with Alzheimers Disease also has the potential to turn voters away from the aging Dole.

When addressing the usual issues, abortion, healthcare, welfare, and foreign policy, look for the Republican challenger to take a moderate position in the coming months. During the past few elections, it has been demonstrated that courting the Christian vote is essential in securing the party nomination. As a result, Republican candidates will often cater to the right wing during the primary season. After the nomination is wrapped up, however, the candidate must appeal not only to party extremists who helped his campaign early on, but the entire political spectrum. Dole will not be able to achieve this goal by pandering to the right wing, thus a moderation in his views is presumably forthcoming. Clinton will most likely continue to portray himself as a "new" Democrat, no longer endorsing the old tax and spend liberal policies of past contenders. It is safe to say that healthcare will not be a hot issue this year. Instead, Clinton might continue his push for welfare reform. As the incumbent, he also has the advantage of running on his record. Look for the campaign to stress his commitment to family values, having passed the Family Leave bill early in his administration, for example, the success in the reduction of the federal bureaucracy, and a national reduction in crime.

Who will win the general election in the fall? The latest polls are divided. Some show President Clinton beating Dole by over ten percentage points, while others show Dole narrowly upsetting the President. Unlike most elections, this year, the selection of the Vice Presidential nominee has the potential to decide the election. Many sources believe that a Dole-Colin Powell ticket would singlehandedly give Dole a victory over Clinton. Powell, however, has not expressed interest in the position, despite the urging of Senator Al D'Amato and New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman. The funny thing about politics, however, is that a lot can change in a short amount of time. A few weeks from now, Americans might be looking at an entirely different political picture. This is why President Clinton cannot afford to accept the current favorable polls. Similarly, Dole cannot let down his guard. Look for both candidates to attempt to translate forthcoming convention momentum into solid support. The President succeeded in this strategy in 1992 by engaging in a nation wide bus tour to boost morale and votes. After the 1984 Democratic National Convention ended, Walter Mondale went fishing.

If 1992 was an exciting election year, 1996 is electric. Between the hotly contested early primaries, the ongoing Clinton scandals, and the politicking soon to come, this year's contest has the ability to replace 1992's three man race as the most exciting election in recent memory. No one can be certain as to what lies ahead for the candidates, but it will sure be interesting!

© Trincoll Journal, 1996.