The Year-2000 problem is a looming threat to the global economy. It is not being taken seriously enough, however. Neither the general public nor investors know very much about it. Business applications have traditionally been programmed to assume all dates are in the 20th century and have not been designed to handle the year 2000 and beyond.

Today's difficulties arise from a clever method early programmers hit upon to save money on computer memory. They used a two-digit year rather than a four-digit year. The century was implied.

Unless found and corrected, computers will reset to 1900 (`00' to them) or some random year or mistake `00' for "not available." The many activities computers control today will malfunction or stop.

No magic bullet

Many people find it hard to believe that the problem has no simple solution but no magic bullet is available. Too many different software languages, programs and computer systems exist; thus they cannot be fixed with one simple, ingenious solution.

Some currently noncompliant systems are so huge and complex that simply not enough time is left to fix and test them. The Internal Revenue Service is an especially relevant example.

The Gartner Group estimates Y2K spending will cost $600 billion, or 20 percent of total computer spending over the next three years, just to maintain status-quo. One observer likened the problem to having to replace all the rivets on the Golden Gate Bridge, one at a time, without interrupting traffic, without a blueprint for the locations of some of the rivets and do it by the deadline.

Don't forget embedded chips

In addition to fixing one trillion lines of software code worldwide, we also have the worry of embedded systems . . . the software in elevators, telephone switching systems, fire control, security systems, water and sewage treatment, air-traffic control, traffic lights and satellites those millions of little sensors that will default on Jan. 1, 2000.

According to Goldman Sachs: "It seems that very few companies have actually completed pilot programs in which the full conversion process (assessment, code replacement and testing) was performed on an application."

Unfortunately, only as companies attack the work to be done do they realize how complicated it is, and regret they waited.

Furthermore, the best and brightest computer programmers want nothing to do with Y2K. Efforts to staff such projects are difficult -- the work is not glamorous, and many see it as a career setback.

The foul-ups have started

Visa and Mastercard, for example, cannot issue credit cards with expiration dates beyond 1999.

In Britain, computers at Marks and Spencer Co. already mistakenly ordered destruction of tons of corned beef, believing they were more than 100 years old.

Failure to comply with Y2K problems could not only lead to increased consolidation activity, bankruptcies or corporate failures, but result in other financial consequences such as class-action lawsuits, possible loss of coverage by insurance companies, professional malpractice, or officer and director liability.

Adding insult to injury, the year 2000 is a leap year, but the year 1900 was not. That will throw calculations off by a day, after Feb. 28. The days of the week are different in the year 2000 than they were in 1900.

The surprising thing is that at this late date, most large computer users are still dragging their feet on dealing with the problem.

Peter DeJager, a computer consultant, was one of the first to sound the Y2K alarm and recently found that no more than one-third of the private companies surveyed know exactly what they have to do to fix their systems and when they are going to do it.

At this point, we believe Y2K will not be an Armageddon; but it will probably be tons of trouble because of the huge scope of the problem, not the difficulty of fixes per se. Solving Y2K takes more time than anything else.

Y2K is a serious global problem.

The level of awareness is low. Except for the Internet, the media has neglected this issue.

Time is short.

Repair is costly.

Government and industry are not taking it seriously.

No quick fix is available and repair is time-consuming.

Because the "network is the computer," the laggards can screw it up.

We believe Y2K will dominate the headlines within a year.