Spiritual Politics blog
State by State
Leonard E. Greenberg Center
Republican caucus entrance poll
Democratic caucus entrance poll
Republican Primary Results
Democratic Primary Results
Clinton and Obama split the
Protestant vote (46 percent of the total vote), while Clinton racked up
large majorities among Catholics (27 percent) and Jews (5 percent). The Nones broke slightly for Obama in a state with a significant number of them
(18 percent), while the non-Judeo-Christians, at seven percent, preferred
Mormons constituted 26 percent of
the vote and evangelicals 24 percent. Romney won both groups, with 95
percent of the former and 39 percent of the latter. In other slices, Romney
prevailed with 60 percent of the Protestants (including Other Christians)
and 35 percent of the Catholics (McCain got 22 percent). Ron Paul, who
managed seven percent of the totals, dominated among the Nones, with 42
percent of their vote. Call it the Ayn Rand vote.
02 04 08
In today's Sacramento Bee, Aurelio Rojas has an instructive
profile of Samuel Rodriguez, Assembly of God pastor and head of the
18,000-member National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference--the go-to
guy for presidential candidates interested in courting the Latino
evangelical vote. Rodriguez is excruciatingly even-handed in his comments,
finding a nice thing to say about all remaining contenders. Lurking not far
beneath the surface is the problem the immigration issue has posed for the
GOP. If the failure of the comprehensive immigration bill broke Rodriguez's
heart, the embrace of anti-immigration politics by Republicans will only
send his flock into the Democratic camp--where they swung in the last
here). In the 2002 congressional vote, Protestants who are neither white
nor black (i.e. Latino evangelicals for the most part) split slightly in
favor of the GOP. In 2004, they broke 58 percent to 42 percent for the GOP.
But in 2006, they went Democratic, by better than 53 percent to 47 percent.
This is not a a huge portion of the electorate--between three and four
percent--but in heavily Latino swing states like Arizona and New Mexico and
Colorado and Nevada, it can make a difference.
01 14 08
On the Church Stump
Molly Ball's story in today's Las Vegas Review-Journal follows Obama
campaigning around southern Nevada, including a visit to a COGIC
congregation where the pastor did not disguise his political preference. Obama had a full Sunday in Southern Nevada, first making a surprise
appearance at a downtown black church, where he spoke at the end of the
Before he arrived, the pastor of the Pentecostal Temple Church of God in
Christ, speaking from the pulpit, advocated for Obama, possibly breaking the
law. Pastor Leon Smith told the congregation that "the more he (Obama)
speaks, the more he wins my confidence, and ... if the polls were open
today, I would cast my vote for this senator."He urged them to do the same, saying, "If you can't support your own, you're
never going to get anywhere. ... I want to see this man in office."
Under federal tax law, nonprofits such as churches are prohibited from
endorsing or opposing political candidates. The Internal Revenue Service has
ruled that the forbidden partisan activity includes speech from the pulpit
that indicates the church favors a particular candidate.The campaign said the pastor simply had made supportive statements about
Obama's record. The church could not be reached late Sunday.
As Obama took the stage, the church choir of mostly red-jacketed women
swayed behind him, breaking into song at the word "change," the Obama
campaign's byword. Obama spoke to the congregation of more than 400 for more than 20 minutes.
He told them about his home congregation in Chicago and his pastor, Jeremiah
Wright, who is somewhat controversial for his black-separatist views.
There are faith forums and then there's the tried and true. For the record,
nearly seven percent of the Nevada population is African American, according
to the 2000 census. That's compared to two percent in Iowa, less than 1
percent in New Hampshire, and 30 percent in South Carolina.
01 19 08
According to a CNN entrance poll, Hillary Clinton won among Catholics
and Protestants with 54 and 58 percent of the vote respectively. Obama
garnered the most votes among those who self identified as “Other
Christian”, “Other Religion” , and “No Religion”. (56, 48, and 44 %) CNN
interviewed 1098 voters.
01 19 08
Stop the Presses
This, from the AP's "entrance" poll in Nevada:
About a quarter of Nevada GOP voters were Mormon, and virtually all of them
preferred Mitt Romney. Overall, about half of Romney's Nevada votes came
from Mormons. Among non-Mormons, he had a slight lead over Ron Paul.
National polls have shown that his Mormon religion is a problem for
significant numbers of Republican voters. Romney and Mike Huckabee were
doing best among white born-again and evangelical Christians."